A day of reckoning might be on the way, argues Saxo Capital Markets’ macro strategist Kay Van-Petersen, but it may not come in Q4.

He says that central banks’ influence is nearing its end, illustrated by the Bank of Japan’s ineffectual QE policy and the European Central Bank’s continual dovish stance.

Van-Petersen also looks at the significant event risks toward the end of 2016 with the US presidential election on November 8, the Italian referendum on December 4 and a potential rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in November or December.

We could be entering the longest regime of USD weakness/liquidation this year, he explains, and expects break outs from range-trading environments across currencies, commodities and equities.