SaxoTV

Yes, China's slowing but don't write it off too quickly

177 views
September 25, 2014 china, china 2014, china banks, china consumer spending, china credit bubble, china deflation, china economy, china economy growth, china equity market, china gdp, china gold, china growth, china in 2014, china manufacturing, china mobile, china outlook, china pmi, china policy, china politics, china rates, china slowdown, china stimulus, china stock market, china trade data, chinaeconomy, chinese, chinese banking sector, chinese banks, chinese consumption, chinese economy, chinese economy outlook, chinese foreign reserves, chinese gdp, chinese growth, chinese interest rates, chinese rates, chinese stock market, chinese stocks, chinese yuan, invesment, investing, investing 2014, investment, investment strategy, investments, investor, investors, lea jakobiak, macro, macro economics, macro economy, macro event, macro events, macro policy, macro strategy, macro-economics, macroeconomics, saxo, saxo bank, saxo tv, saxo tv tradingfloor.com, trade, trade idea, trade view, trader, traders, traders tale, trading, trading idea, trading risks, tradingfloor, tradingfloor.com, tradingfloor.com insights, yannick naud

Debates over the pace of China’s economic slowdown have broken amongst analysts with many predicting a steep decline for the world’s fastest growing economy. Economic expansion in China is expected to come in below the country’s previously stated 7.5 percent projection. Yannick Naud, Portfolio Manager at Sturgeon Capital, believes that many intuitions are underestimating the growth potential of the country. The latest remarks from the International Monetary Fund on China are congruent with this more optimistic outlook.

Changyong Rhee, Director of the Asia and Pacific department at the IMF, believes that growth will be “well above” 7 percent next year. Early estimates for future growth stand around 7.1 percent, but comments from individuals like Rhee suggest that growth could surpass expectations. This is positive outlook contradicts many of the major US lenders perspective on China’s current state.

Earlier this week both Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch reduced their projections for future growth in China. Goldman Sachs forecasted third and fourth quarter growth around 7.1 percent, from 7.4 percent. Annual growth is estimated at 7.3 percent, below the Chinese government’s target of 7.5 percent. Merrill Lynch and RBS echoed similar viewpoints, with Merrill Lynch reducing its 2014 growth forecast to 7.3 percent and RBS dropping its estimate to 7.2 percent. Naud remains positive on growth in China stating that the country should outperform other emerging markets, although growth might not resemble previous year’s development.